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Changing FortunesIncome Mobility and Poverty Dynamics in Britain$
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Stephen P. Jenkins

Print publication date: 2011

Print ISBN-13: 9780199226436

Published to Oxford Scholarship Online: September 2011

DOI: 10.1093/acprof:oso/9780199226436.001.0001

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Modelling Low Income Transitions: Estimates from a Markov Model

Modelling Low Income Transitions: Estimates from a Markov Model

Chapter:
(p.330) 11 Modelling Low Income Transitions: Estimates from a Markov Model
Source:
Changing Fortunes
Author(s):

Stephen P. Jenkins

Publisher:
Oxford University Press
DOI:10.1093/acprof:oso/9780199226436.003.0011

This chapter looks at the similar issues as Chapter 9, but does so using a multivariate Markovian model of poverty transitions rather than hazard regression methods. The advantages and disadvantages of this complementary approach are explained. The analysis demonstrates that taking account of so-called initial conditions and sample drop-out issues is relevant when modelling poverty entries and exits. Despite these complications, the Markovian model's results are also reassuring in the sense that the patterns of differences across individuals in the experience of poverty that are found are similar to those derived using hazard regression models.

Keywords:   Markovian model, poverty exit, poverty entry, hazard regression model, initial conditions, sample drop-out

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