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Foreign Pressure and the Politics of Autocratic Survival$

Abel Escribà-Folch and Joseph Wright

Print publication date: 2015

Print ISBN-13: 9780198746997

Published to Oxford Scholarship Online: October 2015

DOI: 10.1093/acprof:oso/9780198746997.001.0001

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(p.262) (p.263) Appendix A

Source:
Foreign Pressure and the Politics of Autocratic Survival
Author(s):

Abel Escribà-Folch

Joseph Wright

Publisher:
Oxford University Press

Chapter 4 Tables

Table A.1. Electoral success of former dominant parties

Country (outcome)

Election details

Albania 1991 (win)

31 March 1991 Party of Labor of Albania (PLA) 1st in votes (56.4%)

29 June 1997 Socialist Party of Albania (PSS, PLA successor) 1st in seats (101/155)

Bulgaria 1990 (win)

18 December 1994 Bulgarian Socialist Party (BSP) 1st in votes (43.5%)

Congo Br. 1992 (comp)

6 June 1993 Congolese Labor Party (PCT) 3rd in seats (15/125); coalition 2nd in seats (56/125)

Czech. 1990 (comp)

6 June 1992 Czech Republic: Comm. Party of Bohemia and Moravia (KSČM) 2nd in seats (35/185)

KSČM with Democratic Left formed Left Bloc 2nd in seats (51/185)

6 June 1992 Slovakia: Party of Democratic Left (SDL) 2nd in seats (29/150)

El Salvador 1984 (win)

Nationalist Republican Alliance (ARENA) first in seats in elections from 1988–2000

20 March 1988 ARENA 1st in votes (48.1%)

10 March 1991 ARENA 1st in votes (44.3%)

20 March 1994 ARENA 1st in votes (45.0%)

16 March 1997 ARENA 1st in votes (35.4%)

12 March 2000 ARENA 1st in votes (36.0%)

16 March 2003 ARENA 2nd in votes (32.0%)

Honduras 1956 (comp)

22 September 1957 National Party of Honduras (PNH) 2nd in seats (18/58)

Hungary 1990 (win)

8 May 1994 Hungarian Socialist Party (MSzP) 1st in votes (33.0%)

Indonesia 1998 (win)

5 April 2004 Party of the Functional Groups (GOLKAR) 1st in votes (21.6%)

Kenya 2002 (comp)

27 December 2002 Kenya African National Union (KANU) 2nd in seats (14/207)

27 December 2007 KANU 4th in seats (64/210)

27 December 2007 KANU in PNU coalition, supported Kibaki who was 1st in votes (disputed)

Mexico 2000 (win)

6 July 2003 Institutional Revolutionary Party (PRI) 1st in seats (222/500)

Mongolia 1990 (win)

28 June 1992 Mongolian People’s Revolutionary Party (MPRP) 1st in seats (70/76)

30 June 1996 MPRP 2nd in votes (39%)

2 July 2000 MPRP 1st in seats (72/76)

17 July 2004 MPRP 1st in votes (48.2%)

Nicaragua 1990 (win)

25 February 1990 Sandinista National Liberation Front (FSLN) 2nd in seats (39/92)

20 October 1996 FSLN 2nd in seats (36/92)

4 November 2001 2nd in seats (42/92)

5 November 2006 1st in seats (38/92)

Paraguay 1993 (dom)

10 May 1998 National Republican Association (ANR)-Colorado Party (PC) 1st in votes (53.8%)

27 April 2003 ANR-PC 1st in votes (35.3%)

20 April 2008 ANR-PC 1st in seats (29/80)

Poland 1989 (win)

19 September 1993 Democratic Left Alliance (SLD) 2nd in seats (60/360)

19 September 1993 SDL 1st in seats (171/360)

Romania 1990 (win)

27 September 1992 National Democratic Salvation Front (NDSF) 1st in votes (27.7%)

3 November 1996 Social Democracy Pole of Romania (PDSR) 2nd in votes (21.5%)

26 November 2000 PDSR 1st in votes (36.6%)

Senegal 2000 (comp)

29 April 2001 Socialist Party (PS) 2nd in votes (17.4%), 3rd in seats (10/120), boycott 2007 election

South Africa 1994 (comp)

26 April 1994 National Party (NP) 2nd in votes (24.4%)

2 June 1999 New National Party (NNP) 4th in votes (6.9%)

Taiwan 2000 (win)

1 December 2001 Kuomintang (KMT) 2nd in votes (31.3%)

11 December 2004 KMT 2nd in votes (34.9%); part of Pan-Blue coalition 1st in seats (114/225)

22 March 2008 Kuomintang (KMT) 1st in Presidential votes (58.5%)

Zambia 1991 (comp)

31 October 1991 United National Independence Party (UNIP) 2nd in votes (24.2%)

27 December 2001 UNIP 3rd in seats (13, winner had 69)

Dominant (dom) = Win a plurality of votes in all legislative elections since transition; Winner (win) = At a minimum, the party with the highest (plurality) share of seats in a lower house election during the post-transition democratic period; Competitive (comp) = At a minimum, party with the second largest share of votes in at least one lower house election.

(p.264) (p.265)

Table A.2. Aid and regime transition

All regime failures

Democratic transition

Autocratic transition

(1)

(2)

(3)

(4)

(5)

(6)

(7)

(8)

(9)

Aid

0.050

–0.171

–0.659*

–0.082

–0.446

–1.265+

0.064

0.198

–0.103

(0.12)

(0.18)

(0.33)

(0.21)

(0.28)

(0.65)

(0.16)

(0.29)

(0.72)

Aid × Party

0.569*

1.194*

1.215*

2.747*

–0.072

0.403

(0.26)

(0.51)

(0.45)

(1.15)

(0.36)

(0.79)

Aid × Personal

0.162

0.485

0.321

0.490

–0.240

0.285

(0.23)

(0.40)

(0.42)

(0.78)

(0.33)

(0.73)

Party

–1.953**

–3.735**

–4.937**

–2.110*

–6.067**

–10.526+

–2.366**

–2.108

–3.418

(0.49)

(0.92)

(1.72)

(0.90)

(1.73)

(5.63)

(0.84)

(1.34)

(2.75)

Personalist

–0.827+

–1.352+

–2.743*

–1.999*

–2.917*

–2.828

–0.400

0.358

–1.835

(0.45)

(0.79)

(1.30)

(0.85)

(1.44)

(2.37)

(0.57)

(1.11)

(2.53)

Log GDP pc

–0.349*

–0.438*

–0.356

–0.288

–0.381

0.978

–0.498*

–0.479*

–1.143+

(0.17)

(0.19)

(0.54)

(0.31)

(0.32)

(1.94)

(0.20)

(0.20)

(0.65)

Neighbor democracy

1.352*

1.623**

4.196**

2.324*

2.710*

7.700*

0.816

0.793

3.124

(0.55)

(0.57)

(1.39)

(1.06)

(1.06)

(3.09)

(0.73)

(0.71)

(2.31)

Log population

–0.148

–0.160

–4.009*

–0.112

–0.116

–5.293+

–0.216+

–0.198+

–2.341

(0.11)

(0.11)

(1.61)

(0.17)

(0.19)

(3.00)

(0.12)

(0.12)

(2.23)

(Intercept)

1.192

2.492

17.532

0.348

1.890

7.774

1.243

0.554

5.421

(1.85)

(2.10)

(15.62)

(3.14)

(3.37)

(31.14)

(2.34)

(2.63)

(20.62)

β‎Aid + β‎Aid × Party

0.397*

0.535

0.769*

1.481+

0.127

0.300

(0.20)

(0.41)

(0.35)

(0.87)

(0.56)

(0.43)

β‎Aid + β‎Aid × Pers

–0.001

–0.174

–0.125

–0.776

–0.042

0.183

(0.18)

(0.29)

(0.41)

(0.47)

(0.21)

(0.32)

Log-likelihood

–539.6

–536.7

–441.9

–265.8

–261.8

–155.7

–338.3

–337.9

–267.1

Observations

2816

2816

2134

2816

2816

1313

2816

2816

1658

Regimes

217

217

178

217

217

121

217

217

147

Countries

93

93

70

93

93

48

93

93

49

Unit effects

RE

RE

FE

RE

RE

FE

RE

RE

FE

(+) p < 0.10;

(*) p < 0.05;

(**) p < 0.01. Clustered standard errors in parentheses. Years covered: 1962–2008. Military is the excluded regime type. Duration polynomials and interactions between duration polynomials and regime type included in all models, but not reported. Time-period fixed effects in all models, but not reported. Aid is the moving average of the natural log of aid per capita over the last two calendar years.

(p.266) (p.267)

Table A.3. Aid and regime transition by period

Period

Cold War

Post-Cold War

Regime failure

Democratic

Autocratic

Democratic

Autocratic

(1)

(2)

(3)

(4)

Aid

−0.356

0.246

−0.052

0.305

(0.32)

(0.24)

(0.27)

(0.36)

Aid × Party

1.148*

−0.066

(0.56)

(0.45)

Aid × Personal

−0.860*

−0.357

(0.43)

(0.34)

Party

−4.961*

−0.780

(2.34)

(2.60)

Personalist

0.585

1.556

(1.85)

(1.06)

Log GDP pc

0.452

−0.528*

−0.358

−0.405

(0.44)

(0.25)

(0.39)

(0.32)

Neighbor democracy

4.180*

1.692+

2.624*

0.227

(1.73)

(1.00)

(1.06)

(1.22)

Log population

0.591+

−0.128

0.141

0.005

(0.33)

(0.13)

(0.22)

(0.21)

(Intercept)

−14.884**

0.364

−3.073

−2.334

(5.58)

(2.16)

(3.98)

(4.07)

β‎Aid + β‎Aid × Party

1.096*

0.239

(0.49)

(0.41)

β‎Aid + β‎Aid × Personal

−1.216**

−0.111

(0.31)

(0.23)

Log-likelihood

−100.5

−245.8

−178.9

−101.1

Observations

1533

1533

1263

1263

Regimes

150

150

116

116

Countries

79

79

84

84

(+) p < 0.10;

(*) p < 0.05;

(**) p < 0.01. Random effects logit with clustered standard errors in parentheses. Regime duration polynomials and interactions with (included) regime type estimated but not reported. Aid is the moving average of the natural log of aid per capita over the last two calendar years.