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A Conservative Revolution?Electoral Change in Twenty-First Century Ireland$
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Michael Marsh, David M. Farrell, and Gail McElroy

Print publication date: 2017

Print ISBN-13: 9780198744030

Published to Oxford Scholarship Online: April 2017

DOI: 10.1093/acprof:oso/9780198744030.001.0001

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Economic Voting through Boom and Bust

Economic Voting through Boom and Bust

Information and Choice at Irish General Elections, 2002–2011

(p.42) 4 Economic Voting through Boom and Bust
A Conservative Revolution?

Patrick Bernhagen

Heinz Brandenburg

Oxford University Press

While economic voting is generally understood as a matter of prospective evaluation carried out on the basis of retrospective cues available to voters, the extent to which prospective information matters for vote choice remains unclear, in particular if it conflicts with retrospective experience. This chapter analyses the two general elections of 2002 and 2007 before the fiscal and economic collapse and the 2011 election that directly followed the meltdown. These elections provide case studies of economic voting that enable an investigation of whether during good times voters reward the government for facilitating the economic boom irrespective of the extent to which they are exposed to warnings about potentially weak foundations and predictions of economic decline. The analysis links media content data in the context of the elections with survey data from the INES, finding significant variation in the amount (and tone) of economic coverage across the media.

Keywords:   retrospective voting, prospective voting, voter information, election media coverage, economic voting, Ireland, media effects, Irish elections

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