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A Conservative Revolution?Electoral Change in Twenty-First Century Ireland$
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Michael Marsh, David M. Farrell, and Gail McElroy

Print publication date: 2017

Print ISBN-13: 9780198744030

Published to Oxford Scholarship Online: April 2017

DOI: 10.1093/acprof:oso/9780198744030.001.0001

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After 2011

After 2011

Continuing the Revolution

(p.192) 11 After 2011
A Conservative Revolution?

Michael Marsh

Oxford University Press

This chapter makes use of opinion poll data from 2011–15 to assess what has happened since 2011. The local and European Parliament elections of 2014 provided the first real test of post-2011 electoral alignments. The government parties lost heavily, but most change was not to the benefit of a somewhat revived Fianna Fáil, as the three old parties this time mustered only one of every two votes cast. The chapter uses recent polling data to draw comparisons with 2011, asking how far behaviour in later elections underlines or contrasts with the developments uncovered in previous chapters. The chapter seeks to answer the puzzle of how the gradual economic upturn in the final years of the Fine Gael–Labour coalition was not matched by an uptake in voter support for either party: ultimately it was this absence of a ‘feel-good factor’ that was to cost both parties heavily in 2016.

Keywords:   Irish elections, economic crisis, economic voting, party attachment, class voting, sociotropic voting, pocketbook voting, independents, Sinn Fein

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