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Advanced Data Assimilation for GeosciencesLecture Notes of the Les Houches School of Physics: Special Issue, June 2012$
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Éric Blayo, Marc Bocquet, Emmanuel Cosme, and Leticia F. Cugliandolo

Print publication date: 2014

Print ISBN-13: 9780198723844

Published to Oxford Scholarship Online: March 2015

DOI: 10.1093/acprof:oso/9780198723844.001.0001

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Error dynamics in ensemble Kalman filter systems

Error dynamics in ensemble Kalman filter systems

system error

Chapter:
(p.279) 12 Error dynamics in ensemble Kalman filter systems
Source:
Advanced Data Assimilation for Geosciences
Author(s):

P. Houtekamer

Publisher:
Oxford University Press
DOI:10.1093/acprof:oso/9780198723844.003.0012

This chapter compares results from the Canadian global ensemble Kalman filter (EnKF) with observations. This inevitably leads to discrepancies between the observed real atmosphere and its modelled equivalent. These discrepancies originate from system error. In a system simulation experiment, an attempt is made to obtain a coherent picture of the error evolution of a system. Errors can be due to things as different as an inappropriate closure assumption in a forecast model and inaccurate observations of surface pressure. This chapter first describes Monte Carlo methods in general to arrive at a definition of ‘system error’. This is followed by an elimination procedure. First, medium-range ensemble forecasts are used to quantify the understanding of weaknesses of the forecast model. Subsequently, consideration turns to the data-assimilation context to see what additional error sources must be present. The chapter ends with some speculation on the types of errors that should be included.

Keywords:   ensemble Kalman filter, EnKF, system error, system simulation, Monte Carlo

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