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World Population and Human Capital in the Twenty-First Century$

Wolfgang Lutz, William P. Butz, and Samir KC

Print publication date: 2014

Print ISBN-13: 9780198703167

Published to Oxford Scholarship Online: October 2014

DOI: 10.1093/acprof:oso/9780198703167.001.0001

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(p.666) Appendix II

(p.666) Appendix II

World Population and Human Capital in the Twenty-First Century
Oxford University Press

(p.666) Appendix II


The following tables list key results of the different scenarios for 171 individual countries for which education-specific projections could be carried out, as well as for aggregate regions. For the remaining 24 of 195 countries, the education distributions were approximated in order to calculate the regional and global distributions. The membership of the regions follows standard United Nations definitions.

For each country/region these key results are presented on two pages.

Page 1

The top left table, entitled ‘Detailed Human Capital Projections to 2060,’ summarizes the results of the detailed population and human capital projections by age and sex until 2060. It presents the medium scenario, which is also identical to the Shared Socio-economic Pathway (SSP) 2 scenario discussed in the context of the SSPs in Chapter 12. This is the most likely trajectory from today’s perspective. The upper part of this table presents standard demographic indicators as listed. The migration flow data give the cumulative flow over a five-year period and hence are correspondingly higher than annual flows.

The table immediately below, entitled ‘Human Capital Indicators’, presents the full educational attainment distributions for 6 education categories for the adult population aged 25 years and above. Mean years of schooling is a summary indicator averaged across the attainment distributions. Their calculation follows the procedure described in Chapter 9. The ‘Gender gap’ section presents an indicator of gender inequality, namely the ratio of men to women in each education category. A ratio <1.0 indicates more women than men, while a ratio >1.0 indicates more men than women. The bottom of this table details the educational attainment distributions of women aged 20–39—demographically, a particularly relevant group.

The first page of each country set also contains two sets of graphs. At the upper right are population pyramids in which the grey shading shows the numbers of persons in each age group, separately for men and women by level of educational attainment. Children below the age of 15, having not necessarily completed their schooling, are all shown in light grey. Total population size in the indicated year is shown in the upper left corner of each picture.

At the bottom of the first page are line charts showing changes in the absolute size of educational attainment groups of men and women over time. The data for the period 1970–2010 are based on a reconstruction following the procedure described in Lutz et al. (2007). The chart on the left-hand side shows projected trends according to the medium global education trend scenario, followed to the right by the alternative constant enrolment rates and fast track education scenarios. These scenarios are described in detail in Chapters 8–10.

(p.667) Page 2

Except at the very bottom, all tables and figures on this page compare results across the five SSP scenarios, as described in detail in Chapter 12. As they are also based on high and low fertility and mortality trajectories, in addition to different education scenarios, these projections span a wide range of possible future population trends. The upper part of the table, entitled ‘Alternative Scenarios to 2100,’ lists the conventional demographic indicators: population size, proportion aged 65+, and proportion below the age of 20, and two human capital indicators, proportion of women aged 20–39 with at least secondary education, and mean years of schooling of the adult population aged 25+. The middle part of the table, entitled ‘Demographic Assumptions Underlying SSPs’, specifies the underlying fertility, mortality, and migration assumptions for the five different SSP scenarios. The upper three graphs to the left depict visually the information given in the upper part of the table in terms of total population size, mean years of schooling of the adult population, and proportion of the population in different age groups, across all five scenarios.

The table and graph at the very bottom of the second page refer to the analysis on re-measuring ageing in Chapter 11. The table entitled ‘Ageing Indicators, Medium Scenario (SSP2)’ compares two alternative ageing indicators, prospective median age, and proportion with remaining life expectancy (RLE) <15 years, to the conventional indicators, medium age and proportion aged 65+. The graph in the lower left corner illustrates the different projected trajectories of the conventional proportion aged 65+ and the proportion with a remaining life expectancy of <15 years.