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World Population and Human Capital in the Twenty-First Century
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World Population and Human Capital in the Twenty-First Century

Wolfgang Lutz, William P. Butz, and Samir KC

Abstract

This book addresses systematically and quantitatively the role of educational attainment in global population trends and models. Six background chapters summarize past trends in fertility, mortality, migration, and education; examine relevant theories and identify key determining factors; and set the assumptions that are subsequently translated into alternative scenario projections to 2100. These assumptions derive from a global survey of hundreds of experts and five expert meetings on as many continents. Another chapter details their translation into multidimensional projections by age, sex, ... More

Keywords: Population, educational attainment, projection to 2100, fertility, mortality, migration, education, scenario, ageing

Bibliographic Information

Print publication date: 2014 Print ISBN-13: 9780198703167
Published to Oxford Scholarship Online: October 2014 DOI:10.1093/acprof:oso/9780198703167.001.0001

Authors

Affiliations are at time of print publication.

Wolfgang Lutz, editor
Founding Director, Wittgenstein Centre for Demography and Global Human Capital (IIASA, VID/ ÖAW, WU)

William P. Butz, editor
Senior Research Scholar; ; Director of Communications and Outreach, International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis; Wittgenstein Centre for Demography and Global Human Capital

Samir KC, editor
Project Leader, Wittgenstein Centre

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Contents

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Chapter 1 Introduction

Wolfgang Lutz and William P. Butz

Chapter 3 Future Fertility in Low Fertility Countries

Stuart Basten, Tomáš Sobotka, and Kryštof Zeman

Chapter 5 Future Mortality in Low Mortality Countries

Graziella Caselli ,Sven Drefahl, Christian Wegner-siegmundt, and Marc Luy

Chapter 6 Future Mortality in High Mortality Countries

Alessandra Garbero and Elsie Pamuk

Chapter 7 The Future of International Migration

Nikola Sander,Guy J. Abel, and Fernando Riosmena

Chapter 8 Future Education Trends

Bilal F. Barakat andRachel E. Durham

Chapter 9 Data and Methods

SAMIR KC, michaela potančoková, ramon bauer, anne goujon, and erich striessnig

Chapter 11 Re-measuring Twenty-first Century Population Ageing

Sergei Scherbov,Warren C. Sanderson, Samir K.C., and Wolfgang Lutz

Epilogue

Wolfgang Lutz1