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Celebrating StatisticsPapers in honour of Sir David Cox on his 80th birthday$
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A. C. Davison, Yadolah Dodge, and N. Wermuth

Print publication date: 2005

Print ISBN-13: 9780198566540

Published to Oxford Scholarship Online: September 2007

DOI: 10.1093/acprof:oso/9780198566540.001.0001

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Stochastic models for epidemics

Stochastic models for epidemics

Chapter:
(p.27) 1 Stochastic models for epidemics
Source:
Celebrating Statistics
Author(s):

Valerie Isham

Publisher:
Oxford University Press
DOI:10.1093/acprof:oso/9780198566540.003.0002

This chapter provides an overview of stochastic models for epidemics, focusing on topics that have preoccupied researchers for the last 15 years, and identifying continuing challenges. After some historical background and a brief account of basic deterministic models for transmission of infectious diseases, the principles of stochastic modeling of epidemics in homogeneous populations are outlined. The chapter then discusses the complications that arise owing to heterogeneity of host population, of mixing within the population, and of the network among the population, due for example to its social or spatial structure. The chapter concludes with a brief discussion of statistical issues.

Keywords:   AIDS, HIV, epidemic, foot and mouth disease, heterogeneity, infectious disease, measles, network model, SIR model

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