The Ebb and Flow of Party Support
This chapter compares the results of the 2009 Lok Sabha elections in Uttar Pradesh with those of the 2004 elections. The 2009 LS elections are considered in a continuum with the 2007 and 2012 assembly elections. The chapter explores whether the BSP really went down in 2009, whether there was a Congress revival and the reasons for it. The rise and decline of other major political parties are also mapped. The election results are disaggregated at the levels of caste, community, locality, education and class. The chapter assesses whether the 2012 verdict here was really what the analysts said it was and explores the different aspects of the fight for social bases in U.P. It attempts to unravel why different social groups vote the way they do, as small shifts here and there may have far-reaching consequences for the electoral fortunes of political parties.
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