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The Criminology of PlaceStreet Segments and Our Understanding of the Crime Problem$

David Weisburd, Elizabeth R. Groff, and Sue-Ming Yang

Print publication date: 2012

Print ISBN-13: 9780195369083

Published to Oxford Scholarship Online: January 2013

DOI: 10.1093/acprof:oso/9780195369083.001.0001

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(p.216) Appendix 5 Additional Statistical Models

(p.216) Appendix 5 Additional Statistical Models

Source:
The Criminology of Place
Publisher:
Oxford University Press

(p.216) Appendix 5

Additional Statistical Models

(p.217)

Table A5.1 Full Multinomial Regression Model Including Odds Ratios and Significance Levels (Crime-Free Pattern is the Reference Group)

Variable

Low-Stable

Low-Decreasing

Low-Increasing

Moderate-Stable

High-Decreasing

High-Increasing

Chronic

Social Disorganization

Property Value (B)

0.930

0.939

0.878

0.825

0.758

0.815

0.704

Housing Assistance (B)

1.021

1.054

1.076

1.085

1.070

1.094

1.104

Physical Disorder (B)

7.335

6.022

8.236

17.286

15.302

19.014

25.634

Truant Juveniles (B)

1.653

1.719

2.296

2.518

1.993

3.330

2.585

Racial Heterogeneity(B)

1.199

2.526

0.095

0.894

0.069

0.047

0.010

% Active Voters (B)

0.704

0.816

0.279

0.077

0.188

0.044

0.041

Urbanization

0.998

0.994

0.999

0.996

0.995

0.997

1.000

Mixed Land Use

1.119

1.142

1.220

1.152

1.267

1.233

1.565

Physical Disorder (C)

3.025

2.417

3.810

4.888

3.662

5.045

6.169

Truant Juveniles (C)

1.358*

1.284

2.089

1.843

1.505

2.497

1.969

Racial Heterogeneity(C)

0.160*

0.153

0.187

0.982

0.019*

5.362

0.009

Opportunity

High-Risk Juveniles (B)

1.860

1.737

1.903

2.034

2.292

2.009

2.218

Employees (B)

1.065

1.067

1.071

1.074

1.073

1.074

1.075

Bus Stops (B)

1.288

1.253

1.439

1.631

1.636

1.777

1.831

% Vacant Land (B)

2.204

2.033*

4.486

1.384

1.311

4.300*

1.482

Street Lighting (B)

1.045

1.037

1.070

1.070

1.070

1.079

1.089

Residents (B)

1.196

1.187

1.221

1.237

1.229

1.239

1.241

Police/Fire Stations

1.131

1.207

1.250

0.913

1.446*

1.046

1.555*

Public Facilities

1.079

1.148

1.024

1.282

1.446

0.992

1.237*

Arterial Roads

1.812

1.938

1.976

5.435

4.255

6.494

10.870

Total Retail Sales (B)

1.005

1.006

1.007

1.007

1.006

1.008

1.007

High-Risk Juveniles (C)

1.229

1.126*

1.259

1.226

1.254

1.205

1.242

Employees (C)

1.026

1.026

1.031

1.031

1.031

1.032

1.031

% Vacant Land (C)

2.848

2.734*

2.485

4.988*

4.900

4.155

5.803

Residents (C)

1.052

1.043

1.078

1.067

1.050

1.062

1.055

Other Variables

Segment Length

1.035

1.144

0.973

1.042

1.050*

1.036

1.021

Spatial Lag (B)

1.109

1.050

1.171

1.153

1.124

1.210

1.224

Spatial Lag (C)

1.069

0.878

1.224

1.104

0.998

1.270

1.170

n = 24,023; B = beginning value; C = change variable;

* p 〈.05,

† p 〈.01,

‡ p 〈.01.

Cox and Snell Pseudo R2 =.632; Nagelkerke Pseudo R2 =.684.

(p.218) (p.219)

Table A5.2 Comparison of Low-Increasing Trajectory Pattern vs. Low-Decreasing Pattern

Variable

b

Standard Error

Odds Ratio

Social Disorganization

Property Value (B)

−0.057

0.020

0.945

Housing Assistance (B)

0.173

0.049

1.189

Physical Disorder (B)

0.329

0.150

1.389*

Truant Juveniles (B)

0.431

0.175

1.539*

Racial Heterogeneity (B)

−3.154

1.669

0.043

% Active Voters (B)

−0.917

0.273

0.400

Urbanization

0.004

0.000

1.004

Mixed Land Use (B)

0.007

0.226

1.007

Segment Length

−0.162

0.026

0.850

Property Value (C)

−0.117

0.042

0.890

Housing Assistance (C)

0.366

0.076

1.442

Physical Disorder (C)

0.510

0.127

1.666

Truant Juveniles (C)

0.616

0.123

1.851

Racial Heterogeneity (C)

0.140

1.361

1.151

% Active Voters (C)

−0.600

0.291

0.549*

Mixed Land Use (C)

0.000

0.437

1.000

Opportunity

High-Risk Juveniles (B)

−0.005

0.074

0.995

Employees (B)

0.003

0.001

1.003

Bus Stops (B)

0.107

0.086

1.113

% Vacant Land (B)

1.056

0.538

2.875*

Street Lighting (B)

0.029

0.007

1.029

Residents (B)

0.028

0.003

1.028

Total Retail Sales (B)

0.001

0.002

1.001

Police/Fire Stations

0.256

0.162

1.292

Public Facilities

−0.106

0.060

0.900

Arterial Roads

−0.014

0.128

0.986

High-Risk Juveniles (C)

0.072

0.050

1.074

Employees (C)

0.003

0.001

1.003

Bus Stops (C)

−0.121

0.221

0.886

% Vacant Land (C)

−0.222

0.604

0.801

Street Lighting (C)

0.000

0.000

1.000

Residents (C)

0.038

0.007

1.039

Total Retail Sales (C)

0.000

0.000

1.000

Spatial Lag (B)

0.095

0.011

1.100

Spatial Lag (C)

0.309

0.028

1.362

Constant

−1.767

0.291

0.171

n = 3,105; B = beginning value; C = change variable;

* p 〈.05,

† p 〈.01,

‡ p 〈.001.

Cox and Snell Pseudo R2 =.246; Nagelkerke Pseudo R2 =.352.

(p.220)

Table A5.3 Comparison of High-Increasing Trajectory Pattern vs. High-Decreasing Pattern

Variable

b

Standard Error

Odds Ratio

Social Disorganization

Property Value (B)

0.054

0.038

1.056

Housing Assistance (B)

0.032

0.012

1.032

Physical Disorder (B)

0.405

0.163

1.500*

Truant Juveniles (B)

0.457

0.173

1.579

Racial Heterogeneity (B)

0.153

2.891

1.165

% Active Voters (B)

−2.496

0.653

0.082

Urbanization

0.001

0.001

1.001

Mixed Land Use (B)

0.060

0.459

1.062

Segment Length

0.024

0.031

1.024

Property Value (C)

−.043

0.093

0.958

Housing Assistance (C)

0.035

0.041

1.036

Physical Disorder (C)

0.451

0.160

1.570

Truant Juveniles (C)

0.472

0.144

1.603

Racial Heterogeneity (C)

6.912

2.845

1.005E3* 1

% Active Voters (C)

−2.192

0.698

0.112

Mixed Land Use (C)

1.102

0.728

3.010

Opportunity

High-Risk Juveniles (B)

−0.114

0.057

0.893*

Employees (B)

0.001

0.000

1.001

Bus Stops (B)

0.036

0.119

1.037

% Vacant Land (B)

1.128

0.931

3.090

Street Lighting (B)

0.005

0.008

1.005

Residents (B)

0.009

0.002

1.009

Total Retail Sales (B)

0.003

0.002

1.003

Police/Fire Stations

−0.371

0.260

0.690

Public Facilities

−0.337

0.101

0.714

Arterial Roads

−0.377

0.259

0.686

High-Risk Juveniles (C)

−0.066

0.052

0.936

Employees (C)

0.001

0.001

1.001*

Bus Stops (C)

−0.116

0.288

0.891

% Vacant Land (C)

0.318

0.912

1.375

Street Lighting (C)

0.000

0.000

1.000

Residents (C)

0.010

0.007

1.010

Total Retail Sales (C)

0.000

0.000

1.000

Spatial Lag (B)

0.073

0.016

1.075

Spatial Lag (C)

0.229

0.037

1.258

Constant

−1.911

0.557

0.148

n = 793; B = beginning value; C = change variable;

(*) p 〈.05,

() p 〈.01,

() p 〈.001.

Cox and Snell Pseudo R2 =.225; Nagelkerke Pseudo R2 =.325.

(1) The very large odds ratio for this measure results in good part from the distribution of the variable (0–.1825) relative to the unit measurement of change in the odds ratio (0–1). Rescaling the measure, for example, from 0 to 182.5 produces an odds ratio of 1.007.

(p.221) (p.222)