- Title Pages
- Contributors to Papers Written for this Volume
- Introduction by the Editors
- Introduction to the List of Ward Edwards’s Publications
- Chronological List of Publications Written or Co-Authored by Ward Edwards
- 1 The Theory of Decision Making
- 2 Behavioral Decision Theory
- 3 Probability Learning in 1000 Trials
- 4 Dynamic Decision Theory and Probabilistic Information Processing
- 5 Subjective Probabilities Inferred from Decisions
- 6 Conservatism in a Simple Probability Inference Task
- 7 JUDGE: A Laboratory Evaluation
- 8 Bayesian and Regression Models of Human Information Processing: A Myopic Perspective
- 9 Choices Among Bets by Las Vegas Gamblers: Absolute and Contextual Effects
- 10 Hailfinder: Tools for and Experiences with Bayesian Normative Modeling
- 11 Costs and Payoffs Are Instructions
- 12 Bayesian Statistical Inference for Psychological Research
- 13 Tactical Note on the Relation Between Scientific and Statistical Hypotheses
- 14 Boredom-Induced Changes in Preferences Among Bets
- 15 Human Cognitive Capabilities, Representativeness, and Ground Rules for Research
- 16 Costs and Payoffs in Perceptual Research
- 17 Murder and (of?) the Likelihood Principle: A Trialogue
- 18 A Mean for All Seasons
- 19 The Clinical Significance Decision
- 20 The Measurement of Behavior: Indices and Standards
- 21 Subjective Probabilities in Medical Diagnosis
- 22 N = 1: Diagnosis in Unique Cases
- 23 Divide and Conquer: How to Use Likelihood and Value Judgments in Decision Making
- 24 Likelihood Ratios as a Measure of the Diagnostic Usefulness of Excretory Urogram Information
- 25 Diagnosis and Treatment
- 26 Public Values: Multiattribute-Utility Measurement for Social Decision Making
- 27 How to Use Multiattribute Utility Measurement for Social Decisionmaking
- 28-A Multiattribute Utility Measurement: Evaluating Desegregation Plans in a Highly Political Context
- 28-B Reflections on and Criticisms of a Highly Political Multiattribute Utility Analysis
- 29 Evaluating Credit Applications: A Validation of Multiattribute Utility Weight Elicitation Techniques
- 30 SMARTS and SMARTER: Improved Simple Methods for Multiattribute Utility Measurement
- 31 Decision Technology
- 32 The Puzzle of Adolescent Substance Initiation
- 33 Big Decisions, Little Decisions: The Hierarchy of Everyday Life
- 34 The Clinical Decision Tree of Oral Health in Geriatrics
- 35 Why Is a Bird in the Hand Worth Two in the Bush?
- 36 Obituary
- 37 Obituary
- 38 Obituary
- INDEX

# Bayesian Statistical Inference for Psychological Research

# Bayesian Statistical Inference for Psychological Research

- Chapter:
- (p.161) 12 Bayesian Statistical Inference for Psychological Research
- Source:
- A Science of Decision Making
- Author(s):
### Jie W Weiss

### David J Weiss

- Publisher:
- Oxford University Press

This chapter introduces psychologists to the Bayesian outlook in statistics. Bayesian statistics is based on a definition of probability as a particular measure of the opinions of ideally consistent people. Statistical inference is modification of these opinions in the light of evidence, and Bayes' theorem specifies how such modifications should be made. The tools of Bayesian statistics include the theory of specific distributions and the principle of stable estimation, which specifies when actual prior opinions may be satisfactorily approximated by a uniform distribution.

*Keywords:*
Bayesian outlook, Bayesian statistics, hypothesis testing, likelihood principle, consistent people

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- Title Pages
- Contributors to Papers Written for this Volume
- Introduction by the Editors
- Introduction to the List of Ward Edwards’s Publications
- Chronological List of Publications Written or Co-Authored by Ward Edwards
- 1 The Theory of Decision Making
- 2 Behavioral Decision Theory
- 3 Probability Learning in 1000 Trials
- 4 Dynamic Decision Theory and Probabilistic Information Processing
- 5 Subjective Probabilities Inferred from Decisions
- 6 Conservatism in a Simple Probability Inference Task
- 7 JUDGE: A Laboratory Evaluation
- 8 Bayesian and Regression Models of Human Information Processing: A Myopic Perspective
- 9 Choices Among Bets by Las Vegas Gamblers: Absolute and Contextual Effects
- 10 Hailfinder: Tools for and Experiences with Bayesian Normative Modeling
- 11 Costs and Payoffs Are Instructions
- 12 Bayesian Statistical Inference for Psychological Research
- 13 Tactical Note on the Relation Between Scientific and Statistical Hypotheses
- 14 Boredom-Induced Changes in Preferences Among Bets
- 15 Human Cognitive Capabilities, Representativeness, and Ground Rules for Research
- 16 Costs and Payoffs in Perceptual Research
- 17 Murder and (of?) the Likelihood Principle: A Trialogue
- 18 A Mean for All Seasons
- 19 The Clinical Significance Decision
- 20 The Measurement of Behavior: Indices and Standards
- 21 Subjective Probabilities in Medical Diagnosis
- 22 N = 1: Diagnosis in Unique Cases
- 23 Divide and Conquer: How to Use Likelihood and Value Judgments in Decision Making
- 24 Likelihood Ratios as a Measure of the Diagnostic Usefulness of Excretory Urogram Information
- 25 Diagnosis and Treatment
- 26 Public Values: Multiattribute-Utility Measurement for Social Decision Making
- 27 How to Use Multiattribute Utility Measurement for Social Decisionmaking
- 28-A Multiattribute Utility Measurement: Evaluating Desegregation Plans in a Highly Political Context
- 28-B Reflections on and Criticisms of a Highly Political Multiattribute Utility Analysis
- 29 Evaluating Credit Applications: A Validation of Multiattribute Utility Weight Elicitation Techniques
- 30 SMARTS and SMARTER: Improved Simple Methods for Multiattribute Utility Measurement
- 31 Decision Technology
- 32 The Puzzle of Adolescent Substance Initiation
- 33 Big Decisions, Little Decisions: The Hierarchy of Everyday Life
- 34 The Clinical Decision Tree of Oral Health in Geriatrics
- 35 Why Is a Bird in the Hand Worth Two in the Bush?
- 36 Obituary
- 37 Obituary
- 38 Obituary
- INDEX