Jump to ContentJump to Main Navigation
Adaptive ThinkingRationality in the Real World$
Users without a subscription are not able to see the full content.

Gerd Gigerenzer

Print publication date: 2002

Print ISBN-13: 9780195153729

Published to Oxford Scholarship Online: October 2011

DOI: 10.1093/acprof:oso/9780195153729.001.0001

Show Summary Details
Page of

PRINTED FROM OXFORD SCHOLARSHIP ONLINE (www.oxfordscholarship.com). (c) Copyright Oxford University Press, 2018. All Rights Reserved. Under the terms of the licence agreement, an individual user may print out a PDF of a single chapter of a monograph in OSO for personal use (for details see www.oxfordscholarship.com/page/privacy-policy).date: 11 December 2018

Probabilistic Mental Models

Probabilistic Mental Models

(p.129) 7 Probabilistic Mental Models
Adaptive Thinking

Gerd Gigerenzer

Oxford University Press

The cognitive bias research claims that people are naturally prone to making mistakes in reasoning and memory, including the mistake of over-estimating their knowledge. This chapter proposes a new theoretical model for confidence in knowledge based on the more charitable assumption that people are good judges of the reliability of their knowledge, provided that the knowledge is representatively sampled from a specified reference class. It claims that this model both predicts new experimental results and explains a wide range of extant experimental findings on confidence, including some perplexing inconsistencies. It consists of three parts: an exposition of the proposed theory of probabilistic mental models (PMM theory); a report of experimental tests confirming these predictions; and an explanation of apparent anomalies in previous experimental results by means of PMMs.

Keywords:   cognitive bias, reasoning, memory, probabilistic mental models, knowledge, experimental tests

Oxford Scholarship Online requires a subscription or purchase to access the full text of books within the service. Public users can however freely search the site and view the abstracts and keywords for each book and chapter.

Please, subscribe or login to access full text content.

If you think you should have access to this title, please contact your librarian.

To troubleshoot, please check our FAQs , and if you can't find the answer there, please contact us .