Past, Present, and Possible Future of Macroeconometric Models and Their Uses
Econometrics, as a total subject, is older than macroeconometric model building and deserves a separate historical inquiry. Early investigations of demand–supply functions, income distributions, family budgets, cost, and production functions have been the subject of historical study. The joint founding of the Econometric Society and the Cowles Commission for Research in Economics represented the beginnings of major steps forward from the 1930s. In addition to some of the papers presented at the Cowles Foundation anniversary party, there have been some separate studies by scholars from the group. More than ten years ago, a seminar was organized to compare models to appreciate their differences and to look for commonalities. In a first phase, the Model Comparison Seminar looked at distributions of multipliers across macroeconomic models, and the outcome of common applications of control theory. This chapter reviews briefly the focal points of interest during the historical period of macroeconometric model development.
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