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Gaining CurrencyThe Rise of the Renminbi$
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Eswar S. Prasad

Print publication date: 2016

Print ISBN-13: 9780190631055

Published to Oxford Scholarship Online: October 2016

DOI: 10.1093/acprof:oso/9780190631055.001.0001

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House of Cards?

House of Cards?

(p.173) Chapter 8. House of Cards?
Gaining Currency

Eswar S. Prasad

Oxford University Press

This chapter evaluates the risks that China’s economy faces, any of which could derail the RMB’s rise in international finance. The risks include a balance of payments or currency crisis precipitated by capital flight; financial market meltdown, either because of nonperforming loans in the banking system or problems in the shadow banking sector; a sharp slowdown in growth; and political and social instability. The chapter reviews each of these risks and concludes that, while none of them can be dismissed, the prospects of an economic, financial, or political meltdown should not be overstated.

Keywords:   capital outflows, capital flight, nonperforming loans, financial crisis, stock market meltdown, shadow banking, growth prospects, anti-corruption drive, policy instability, currency speculation

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