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Global and National Macroeconometric ModellingA Long-Run Structural Approach$
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Anthony Garratt, Kevin Lee, M. Hashem Pesaran, and Yongcheol Shin

Print publication date: 2006

Print ISBN-13: 9780199296859

Published to Oxford Scholarship Online: September 2006

DOI: 10.1093/0199296855.001.0001

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Probability forecasting: Concepts and analysis

Probability forecasting: Concepts and analysis

Chapter:
(p.145) 7 Probability forecasting: Concepts and analysis
Source:
Global and National Macroeconometric Modelling
Author(s):

Anthony Garratt (Contributor Webpage)

Kevin Lee (Contributor Webpage)

M. Hashem Pesaran (Contributor Webpage)

Yongcheol Shin (Contributor Webpage)

Publisher:
Oxford University Press
DOI:10.1093/0199296855.003.0007

This chapter provides an introduction to the interpretation and estimation of probability forecasts, which is considered to be a particularly useful method for presenting forecasts and decision-making. It shows how probability forecasts can accommodate stochastic uncertainty, parameter uncertainty, and model uncertainty. Practical guidance on their computation is provided.

Keywords:   probability, forecasting, stochastic uncertainty, parameter uncertainty, model averaging, forecast pooling

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