Abstract: Considers the nature of chance and its role in statistical hypotheses. It is argued that the best way to understand chance is as tendency, naturally measured by the frequency in repeated trials of the occurrence of the event in question. The relationship with von Mises's theory is briefly examined. It is shown how, via Bayes's Theorem, statistical data can support or undermine chance hypotheses even though there is no deductive relation between the hypotheses and the data.

Keywords: Bayes's theorem, chance, frequency, statistical hypotheses, Von Mises,