As Time Goes By
From the Industrial Revolutions to the Information Revolution
Freeman, Chris,
Emeritus Professor, SPRU, University of Sussex
Louçã, Francisco,
Professor of Economics, ISEG, Lisbon
Print publication date: 2002
Published to Oxford Scholarship Online: November 2003 Print ISBN-13: 978-0-19-925105-6 doi:10.1093/0199251053.001.0001 |
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Abstract:
This book is about fundamental economic theory, but it maintains that economics is meaningless outside the framework of history.It therefore analyses the evolution of some leading economies since the Industrial Revolution.It opens with a critical discussion of some earlier attempts to expound a theory of history, notably, the so-called ‘new economic history’ or ‘cliometrics’ and then the ideas of two outstanding social scientists—Kondratiev and Schumpeter.They were both concerned with major qualitative as well as quantitative changes in evolving economic systems, with the explanation of such revolutionary transformations and with their periodization.Our book too is concerned with exploring these problems, but it offers deep criticism both of Kondratiev's ‘long wave’ theory and of Schumpeter's attempt to reconcile this theory with the equilibrium models of Walras.Like Keynes, we emphasize some of the limitations of purely econometric models and insist on the great importance of ‘semi-autonomous’ institutions and subsystems of society, which influence the economy and are influenced by it in a process of mutual interaction and adjustment.Although in recent times the technology subsystem has been extremely dynamic and influential in the evolution of the economy, it is essential to consider also the political, cultural, and science subsystems, all of which have a vital role in achieving that degree of congruence in the social system necessary for successful economic growth.This approach is illustrated in those chapters of the book that are devoted to a historical account of five successive technological revolutions, i.e. water-powered mechanization, steam-powered mechanization, electrification, motorization, and computerization.Statistical evidence of the great significance of these technological revolutions for structural change in the economy is found in the changing composition of the leading cohort of the hundred largest firms.Evidence of the social conflicts and tensions engendered by each structural crisis of adjustment is found in the statistics of days lost in strikes, as well as in political conflicts over the regulatory regime and in international markets.
Keywords: economic cycle, economic history, economic theory, institutions, Nikolai Kondratiev, Joseph Schumpeter, science, technological revolutions, technology Table of Contents
1.
Restless Clio: A Story of the Economic Historians' Assessment of History in Economics
2.
Schumpeter's Plea for Reasoned History
3.
Nikolai Kondratiev: A New Approach to History and Statistics
4.
The Strange Attraction of Tides and Waves
5.
The British Industrial Revolution: The Age of Cotton, Iron, and Water Power
6.
The Second Kondratiev Wave: The Age of Iron Railways, Steam Power, and Mechanization
7.
The Third Kondratiev Wave: The Age of Steel, Heavy Engineering, and Electrification
8.
The Fourth Kondratiev Wave: The Great Depression and the Age of Oil, Automobiles, Motorization, and Mass Production
9.
The Emergence of a New Techno-Economic Paradigm: The Age of Information and Communication Technology (ICT)
Bibliography
Index
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