Abstract: Transition in Central and Eastern Europe has led to a U-shaped response of output, that is, a sharp decline in output followed by recovery. Six years after the beginning of transition, most of the countries of Central Europe now seem firmly on the upside. Most of the countries of Eastern Europe are still close to the bottom of the U; an optimistic view is that they are now negotiating the turn.This U-shaped response of output, its causes and its implications, is the subject of this book. That transition came with an often-large initial decrease in output should be seen as a puzzle. After all, the previous economic system was characterized by myriad distortions. One might have expected that removing most of them would lead to a large increase, not decrease in output. This is not what happened. The purpose of this book is to understand why, and to draw general lessons.

Keywords: Central Europe, decline, distortion, Eastern Europe, economic system, output, post-communist countries, recovery, transition, U-shaped curve