Abstract: The previous chapter outlined the nature of futures contracts and some of the institutional aspects of the markets in which they are traded; this chapter analyzes the forces that determine the prices of different futures contracts, their relationship to the current market price (known as the spot price), and derives a satisfactory theory of futures prices. Different determinants are explored of the prices of both commodity futures (contracts based on a tangible commodity) and financial futures (those based on another financial instrument or index). After looking at the role of futures in ‘programme trading’ and the realities of so-called portfolio insurance through the use of futures and options – a concept that was put to the test by the ‘Black Monday’ crash of 1987 – the chapter concludes by discussing futures as an investment. The five sections of the chapter (which is a discussion with respect to the USA) are as follows: Profits and losses on various transactions; Relations among spot and futures prices; Hedgers, speculators, and market equilibrium; The role of expectations; and Futures and portfolio management.

Keywords: commodity futures, financial futures, futures contracts, futures markets, futures prices, hedging, investment, losses, market equilibrium, market options, prices, portfolio insurance, portfolio management, profits, speculation, spot prices, USA,